České Budějovice U19 3–2 Meteor Praha U19

České Budějovice U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Meteor Praha U19

5/14/2022

1. Liga U19 · Round 25SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

České Budějovice U1964%

×Draw18%

Meteor Praha U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

České Budějovice U19Expected goals in this matchMeteor Praha U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.25

České Budějovice U19

2.50

Meteor Praha U19

1.25

České Budějovice U19 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 18 away

2.06

creates per match

0.83

1.68

allows per match

2.94

creates per match

České Budějovice U19

2.06

Meteor Praha U19

0.83

allows per match

České Budějovice U19

1.68

Meteor Praha U19

2.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Meteor Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice U19 ↓

Meteor Praha U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

České Budějovice U19 or draw

82%

České Budějovice U19 or Meteor Praha U19

82%

Draw or Meteor Praha U19

36%

Winning margin

České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+

43%

Meteor Praha U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

České Budějovice U19 1+ goals

92%

České Budějovice U19 2+ goals

71%

České Budějovice U19 3+ goals

45%

Meteor Praha U19 1+ goals

71%

Meteor Praha U19 2+ goals

36%

Meteor Praha U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Meteor Praha U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

Meteor Praha U19 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice U19 attack 2.06 + Meteor Praha U19 defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.50

Meteor Praha U19 attack 0.83 + České Budějovice U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

České Budějovice U19 scores more

64%

level

18%

Meteor Praha U19 scores more

18%

České Budějovice U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "České Budějovice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff