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Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Kramatorsk — Persha Liga 2019

Metalurh Zaporizhya
Metalurh Zaporizhya
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kramatorsk
Kramatorsk
7/23/2020Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 26Knyazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya36%
×Draw27%
Kramatorsk37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.23
Kramatorsk
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 40 away

creates per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.88
Kramatorsk
0.85

allows per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.68
Kramatorsk
1.57

finishing

Metalurh Zaporizhya+0.00on par
Kramatorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalurh Zaporizhya ↓

Kramatorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Metalurh Zaporizhya or draw
63%
Metalurh Zaporizhya or Kramatorsk
73%
Draw or Kramatorsk
64%

Winning margin

Metalurh Zaporizhya wins by 2+
15%
Kramatorsk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Metalurh Zaporizhya 1+ goals
71%
Metalurh Zaporizhya 2+ goals
35%
Metalurh Zaporizhya 3+ goals
13%
Kramatorsk 1+ goals
72%
Kramatorsk 2+ goals
36%
Kramatorsk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Metalurh Zaporizhya (draw refunded)
49%
Kramatorsk (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalurh Zaporizhya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

Kramatorsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.88 + Kramatorsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kramatorsk attack 0.85 + Metalurh Zaporizhya defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Metalurh Zaporizhya scores more
36%
level
27%
Kramatorsk scores more
37%

Kramatorsk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kramatorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Kramatorsk

Metalurh Zaporizhya beat Kramatorsk 3-1 in Persha Liga on July 23, 2020.

The match was played at Knyazha-Arena in Shchaslyve.