Kramatorsk 1–0 Metalurh Zaporizhya: Result & Stats

Kramatorsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Metalurh Zaporizhya

9/28/2019

Persha Liga · Round 11Stadion Prapor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kramatorsk47%

×Draw26%

Metalurh Zaporizhya28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KramatorskExpected goals in this matchMetalurh Zaporizhya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.11

Kramatorsk

1.52

Metalurh Zaporizhya

1.11

Kramatorsk creates 37% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 70 away

1.34

creates per match

0.86

1.37

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Kramatorsk

1.34

Metalurh Zaporizhya

0.86

allows per match

Kramatorsk

1.37

Metalurh Zaporizhya

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kramatorsk+0.00on par

Metalurh Zaporizhya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kramatorsk ↓

Metalurh Zaporizhya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kramatorsk or draw

72%

Kramatorsk or Metalurh Zaporizhya

74%

Draw or Metalurh Zaporizhya

53%

Winning margin

Kramatorsk wins by 2+

23%

Metalurh Zaporizhya wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kramatorsk 1+ goals

78%

Kramatorsk 2+ goals

45%

Kramatorsk 3+ goals

20%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 1+ goals

67%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 2+ goals

30%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kramatorsk (draw refunded)

63%

Metalurh Zaporizhya (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kramatorsk at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kramatorsk attack 1.34 + Metalurh Zaporizhya defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.86 + Kramatorsk defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kramatorsk scores more

47%

level

26%

Metalurh Zaporizhya scores more

28%

Kramatorsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kramatorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff