Metalurh Zaporizhya 0–0 Inhulets: Result & Stats

Metalurh Zaporizhya

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Inhulets

11/5/2023

Persha Liga · Round 15Tsentralnyi stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya20%

×Draw26%

Inhulets54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalurh ZaporizhyaExpected goals in this matchInhulets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.51

Metalurh Zaporizhya

0.82

Inhulets

1.51

Inhulets creates 84% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 44 away

0.88

creates per match

1.34

1.68

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya

0.88

Inhulets

1.34

allows per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya

1.68

Inhulets

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalurh Zaporizhya+0.00on par

Inhulets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalurh Zaporizhya ↓

Inhulets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Metalurh Zaporizhya or draw

46%

Metalurh Zaporizhya or Inhulets

74%

Draw or Inhulets

80%

Winning margin

Metalurh Zaporizhya wins by 2+

6%

Inhulets wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Metalurh Zaporizhya 1+ goals

56%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 2+ goals

20%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 3+ goals

5%

Inhulets 1+ goals

78%

Inhulets 2+ goals

44%

Inhulets 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Metalurh Zaporizhya (draw refunded)

28%

Inhulets (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalurh Zaporizhya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

Inhulets away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.88 + Inhulets defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Inhulets attack 1.34 + Metalurh Zaporizhya defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Metalurh Zaporizhya scores more

20%

level

26%

Inhulets scores more

54%

Inhulets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Inhulets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff