Inhulets 3–2 Metalurh Zaporizhya: Result & Stats

Inhulets

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Metalurh Zaporizhya

11/16/2019

Persha Liga · Round 18Stadion Inhulets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Inhulets61%

×Draw22%

Metalurh Zaporizhya17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InhuletsExpected goals in this matchMetalurh Zaporizhya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.85

Inhulets

1.86

Metalurh Zaporizhya

0.85

Inhulets creates 119% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 70 away

2.02

creates per match

0.86

0.84

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Inhulets

2.02

Metalurh Zaporizhya

0.86

allows per match

Inhulets

0.84

Metalurh Zaporizhya

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inhulets+0.00on par

Metalurh Zaporizhya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets ↓

Metalurh Zaporizhya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Inhulets or draw

83%

Inhulets or Metalurh Zaporizhya

78%

Draw or Metalurh Zaporizhya

39%

Winning margin

Inhulets wins by 2+

36%

Metalurh Zaporizhya wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Inhulets 1+ goals

84%

Inhulets 2+ goals

55%

Inhulets 3+ goals

28%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 1+ goals

57%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 2+ goals

21%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Inhulets (draw refunded)

79%

Metalurh Zaporizhya (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inhulets at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.84 · 44 matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets attack 2.02 + Metalurh Zaporizhya defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.86

Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.86 + Inhulets defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Inhulets scores more

61%

level

22%

Metalurh Zaporizhya scores more

17%

Inhulets at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Inhulets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff