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Metalurh Zaporizhya II vs Lokomotiv Kyiv — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Metalurh Zaporizhya II
Metalurh Zaporizhya II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
11/18/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 18Stadion Bazys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya II27%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv Kyiv49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalurh Zaporizhya II
1.15
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.65

Lokomotiv Kyiv creates 43% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 37 away

creates per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya II
0.95
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.54

allows per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya II
1.76
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.35

finishing

Metalurh Zaporizhya II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalurh Zaporizhya II ↓

Lokomotiv Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Metalurh Zaporizhya II or draw
51%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II or Lokomotiv Kyiv
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv Kyiv
73%

Winning margin

Metalurh Zaporizhya II wins by 2+
10%
Lokomotiv Kyiv wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Metalurh Zaporizhya II 1+ goals
68%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II 2+ goals
32%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II 3+ goals
11%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 2+ goals
49%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Metalurh Zaporizhya II (draw refunded)
35%
Lokomotiv Kyiv (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalurh Zaporizhya II at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Lokomotiv Kyiv away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalurh Zaporizhya II attack 0.95 + Lokomotiv Kyiv defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Lokomotiv Kyiv attack 1.54 + Metalurh Zaporizhya II defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Metalurh Zaporizhya II scores more
27%
level
24%
Lokomotiv Kyiv scores more
49%

Lokomotiv Kyiv at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lokomotiv Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Metalurh Zaporizhya II 1–3 Lokomotiv Kyiv

Lokomotiv Kyiv beat Metalurh Zaporizhya II 3-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bazys in Kochubeivka.