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Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Metalurh Zaporizhya II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Lokomotiv Kyiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Metalurh Zaporizhya II
Metalurh Zaporizhya II
8/20/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 3Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lokomotiv Kyiv60%
×Draw22%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.94
Metalurh Zaporizhya II
0.97

Lokomotiv Kyiv creates 100% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.67
Metalurh Zaporizhya II
1.00

allows per match

Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.95
Metalurh Zaporizhya II
2.20

finishing

Lokomotiv Kyiv+0.00on par
Metalurh Zaporizhya II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Kyiv ↓

Metalurh Zaporizhya II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Kyiv or draw
82%
Lokomotiv Kyiv or Metalurh Zaporizhya II
78%
Draw or Metalurh Zaporizhya II
40%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Kyiv wins by 2+
36%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Kyiv 1+ goals
86%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 2+ goals
58%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 3+ goals
30%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II 1+ goals
62%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II 2+ goals
25%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Kyiv (draw refunded)
76%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Kyiv at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Kyiv attack 1.67 + Metalurh Zaporizhya II defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Metalurh Zaporizhya II attack 1.00 + Lokomotiv Kyiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lokomotiv Kyiv scores more
60%
level
22%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II scores more
18%

Lokomotiv Kyiv at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lokomotiv Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Lokomotiv Kyiv 0–2 Metalurh Zaporizhya II

Metalurh Zaporizhya II beat Lokomotiv Kyiv 2-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova in Kiev.