Metalourg 0–1 Kokand-1912: Result & Stats

Metalourg

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kokand-1912

I. Josović 70' (pen)

9/19/2021

Super League · Round 19Metallurg Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Metalourg45%

×Draw28%

Kokand-191227%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetalourgExpected goals in this matchKokand-1912

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.96

Metalourg

1.31

Kokand-1912

0.96

Metalourg creates 36% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 72 away

1.05

creates per match

0.88

1.03

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Metalourg

1.05

Kokand-1912

0.88

allows per match

Metalourg

1.03

Kokand-1912

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par

Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Kokand-1912 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw

73%

Metalourg or Kokand-1912

72%

Draw or Kokand-1912

55%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+

21%

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals

73%

Metalourg 2+ goals

38%

Metalourg 3+ goals

14%

Kokand-1912 1+ goals

62%

Kokand-1912 2+ goals

25%

Kokand-1912 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)

62%

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 1.05 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kokand-1912 attack 0.88 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Metalourg scores more

45%

level

28%

Kokand-1912 scores more

27%

Metalourg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

K. Abdukhamidov← A. Hojimirzaev

55'

S. Norbekov← M. Meliev

67'

A. Toshkuziev← A. Abdulkhakov

67'

I. Nagaev← S. Nurmatov

69'

A. Ismatullaev

70'

I. JosovićPenalty

79'

D. Rakhmatullaev← D. Temirov

79'

Z. Abdullayev← M. Isayev

79'

S. Azimov← M. Hasanov

85'

F. Bekmurodov← S. Norbekov

90'

A. Sobirzhonov

90+5'

M. Abdullayev

Metalourg

Kokand-1912

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Abduraimov

67'▲A. Toshkuziev←▼A. Abdulkhakov

67'▲I. Nagaev←▼S. Nurmatov

79'▲D. Rakhmatullaev←▼D. Temirov

79'▲Z. Abdullayev←▼M. Isayev

Metalourg substitutes

ToshkuzievNagaevRakhmatullaevAbdullayevDavlatovSattarovRoziyevNematjonovVagin

Manager: B. Ashurmatov

55'▲K. Abdukhamidov←▼A. Hojimirzaev

55'▲S. Norbekov←▼M. Meliev

79'▲S. Azimov←▼M. Hasanov

85'▲F. Bekmurodov←▼S. Norbekov

Kokand-1912 substitutes

AbdukhamidovNorbekovAzimovBekmurodovSidorovAbdullayevBerdyevBamba

Super League: Metalourg 0–1 Kokand-1912

Kokand-1912 beat Metalourg 1-0 in Super League on September 19, 2021.

Goals: I. Josović (70' pen).

The match was played at Metallurg Markaziy Stadion in Bekabad.

Metalourg vs Kokand-1912 — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Metalourg 0–1 Kokand-1912