Kokand-1912 0–1 Metalourg: Result & Stats

Kokand-1912

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Metalourg

S. Kutybaev 90+3'

4/15/2021

Super League · Round 6Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Kokand-191240%

×Draw27%

Metalourg33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kokand-1912Expected goals in this matchMetalourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.14

Kokand-1912

1.29

Metalourg

1.14

Kokand-1912 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 83 away

1.30

creates per match

1.02

1.26

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Kokand-1912

1.30

Metalourg

1.02

allows per match

Kokand-1912

1.26

Metalourg

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kokand-1912 ↓

Metalourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kokand-1912 or draw

67%

Kokand-1912 or Metalourg

73%

Draw or Metalourg

60%

Winning margin

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+

18%

Metalourg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kokand-1912 1+ goals

72%

Kokand-1912 2+ goals

37%

Kokand-1912 3+ goals

14%

Metalourg 1+ goals

68%

Metalourg 2+ goals

32%

Metalourg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)

55%

Metalourg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kokand-1912 at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kokand-1912 attack 1.30 + Metalourg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Metalourg attack 1.02 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kokand-1912 scores more

40%

level

27%

Metalourg scores more

33%

Kokand-1912 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kokand-1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

O. Rustamov

27'

E. Chumak

63'

S. Norbekov← M. Meliev

68'

A. Sidorov← Y. Bamba

79'

A. Hojimirzaev← A. Sobirjonov

82'

Z. Abdullayev← S. Nurmatov

86'

K. Tadjiev

90+5'

D. Temirov← Y. Chumak

90+2'

I. Nagaev← S. Gofurbekov

90+3'

S. Kutybaev

Kokand-1912

Metalourg

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Ashurmatov

63'▲S. Norbekov←▼M. Meliev

68'▲A. Sidorov←▼Y. Bamba

79'▲A. Hojimirzaev←▼A. Sobirjonov

Kokand-1912 substitutes

NorbekovSidorovHojimirzaevAtkhamovMalikjanovAzimovLukić

Manager: D. Abduraimov

82'▲Z. Abdullayev←▼S. Nurmatov

90+5'▲D. Temirov←▼Y. Chumak

90+2'▲I. Nagaev←▼S. Gofurbekov

Metalourg substitutes

AbdullayevTemirovNagaevTursunbaevNarzullaevMakeevQudratillayev

Match Recap: Kokand-1912 vs Metalourg

Metalourg beat Kokand-1912 1-0 in Super League on April 15, 2021.

Goals: S. Kutybaev (90+3').

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Kokand.

Kokand-1912 vs Metalourg — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kokand-1912 vs Metalourg