Metalourg 0–1 Dinamo Samarqand: Result & Stats

Metalourg

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Samarqand

A. Hojimirzaev 45+1'

8/23/2024

Super League · Round 17OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Metalourg43%

×Draw27%

Dinamo Samarqand30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetalourgExpected goals in this matchDinamo Samarqand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.13

Metalourg

1.40

Dinamo Samarqand

1.13

Metalourg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 62 away

1.05

creates per match

1.23

1.03

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Metalourg

1.05

Dinamo Samarqand

1.23

allows per match

Metalourg

1.03

Dinamo Samarqand

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw

70%

Metalourg or Dinamo Samarqand

73%

Draw or Dinamo Samarqand

57%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals

75%

Metalourg 2+ goals

41%

Metalourg 3+ goals

17%

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

68%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

31%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.74 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 1.05 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.23 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Metalourg scores more

43%

level

27%

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

30%

Metalourg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

A. Hojimirzaev

46'

D. Sharipov← S. Ubaydullaev

46'

M. Milićković← A. Toshkuziev

59'

K. Sattarov← S. Kuziev

59'

S. Nematjonov← A. Ergashboyev

73'

Z. Urinboev← B. Sekulić

74'

R. Yagudin

74'

F. Rahmatov← Marcos Kayck

79'

S. Shaakhmedov← Maykon Douglas

80'

D. Sharipov

84'

F. Narh

85'

K. Khalilov← K. Iminov

85'

U. Abdullayev← A. Hojimirzaev

90'

S. Mustafoev

90+7'

K. Sattorov

90+7'

J. Urozov

Metalourg

Dinamo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Kolosovskii

46'▲D. Sharipov←▼S. Ubaydullaev

46'▲M. Milićković←▼A. Toshkuziev

59'▲K. Sattarov←▼S. Kuziev

59'▲S. Nematjonov←▼A. Ergashboyev

73'▲Z. Urinboev←▼B. Sekulić

Metalourg substitutes

SharipovMilićkovićSattarovNematjonovUrinboevAshurovHayrullayevOrtikovShaykulov

Manager: V. Abramov

74'▲F. Rahmatov←▼Marcos Kayck

79'▲S. Shaakhmedov←▼Maykon Douglas

85'▲K. Khalilov←▼K. Iminov

85'▲U. Abdullayev←▼A. Hojimirzaev

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

RahmatovShaakhmedovKhalilovAbdullayevMuydinovNasimovRakhmatullaevOqbutayevAhmedov