Dinamo Samarqand 2–1 Metalourg: Result & Stats

Dinamo Samarqand

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Metalourg

K. Khalilov 90+2'

A. Hojimirzaev 72' (pen)

S. Abduraymov 28'

3/28/2024

Super League · Round 4Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand39%

×Draw27%

Metalourg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo SamarqandExpected goals in this matchMetalourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.16

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Metalourg

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 83 away

1.27

creates per match

1.02

1.29

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Metalourg

1.02

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.29

Metalourg

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Metalourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw

66%

Dinamo Samarqand or Metalourg

73%

Draw or Metalourg

61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

17%

Metalourg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

14%

Metalourg 1+ goals

69%

Metalourg 2+ goals

32%

Metalourg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

54%

Metalourg (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Metalourg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Metalourg attack 1.02 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

39%

level

27%

Metalourg scores more

34%

Dinamo Samarqand at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Samarqand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

S. Abduraymov

41'

A. Toshkuziev

46'

J. Kojo← H. Gafurov

46'

K. Iminov← V. Oqbutayev

46'

K. Khalilov← A. Muydinov

54'

65'

71'

71'

72'

A. HojimirzaevPenalty

78'

E. Ismoilov← S. Kuziev

78'

K. Palić← S. Ubaydullaev

78'

M. Milićković← S. Abduraymov

87'

K. Sattarov← I. Shaykulov

90+3'

B. Đorđević← D. Sharipov

90+2'

K. Khalilov

Dinamo

Metalourg

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: V. Abramov

46'▲J. Kojo←▼H. Gafurov

46'▲K. Iminov←▼V. Oqbutayev

46'▲K. Khalilov←▼A. Muydinov

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

KojoIminovKhalilovSokolNasimovYorbekovYaghrIkramovYagudin

Manager: V. Stešević

78'▲E. Ismoilov←▼S. Kuziev

78'▲K. Palić←▼S. Ubaydullaev

78'▲M. Milićković←▼S. Abduraymov

87'▲K. Sattarov←▼I. Shaykulov

90+3'▲B. Đorđević←▼D. Sharipov

Metalourg substitutes

IsmoilovPalićMilićkovićSattarovĐorđevićOtakhonovTursunqulovSuleymanovDavronov

Super League: Dinamo Samarqand 2–1 Metalourg

Dinamo Samarqand beat Metalourg 2-1 in Super League on March 28, 2024.

Goals: S. Abduraymov (28'), A. Hojimirzaev (72' pen), K. Khalilov (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Samarqand.

Dinamo Samarqand vs Metalourg — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Dinamo Samarqand 2–1 Metalourg