Metalourg 2–0 Andijan: Result & Stats

Metalourg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Andijan

D. Sharipov 69'

S. Ubaydullaev 34'

9/27/2023

Super League · Round 20Metallurg Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Metalourg44%

×Draw28%

Andijan28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetalourgExpected goals in this matchAndijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.00

Metalourg

1.31

Andijan

1.00

Metalourg creates 31% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 88 away

1.05

creates per match

0.97

1.03

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Metalourg

1.05

Andijan

0.97

allows per match

Metalourg

1.03

Andijan

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par

Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Andijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw

72%

Metalourg or Andijan

72%

Draw or Andijan

56%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+

20%

Andijan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals

73%

Metalourg 2+ goals

38%

Metalourg 3+ goals

14%

Andijan 1+ goals

63%

Andijan 2+ goals

26%

Andijan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)

61%

Andijan (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 1.05 + Andijan defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Andijan attack 0.97 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Metalourg scores more

44%

level

28%

Andijan scores more

28%

Metalourg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

S. Ubaydullaev

58'

A. Bošnjak← S. Azimov

58'

S. Berdiyev← L. Arveladze

58'

S. Erkinov← R. Hebaj

61'

D. Sharipov← S. Ubaydullaev

69'

D. Sharipov

70'

A. Komilov← I. Alijanov

70'

Islombek Mamatkazin← Ildar Mamatkazin

73'

A. Komilov

78'

S. Berdiev

81'

B. Shodmonov← I. Shaykulov

90+3'

R. Fayzullayev← E. Ismoilov

Metalourg

Andijan

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ubaydulla

Manager: V. Stešević

61'▲D. Sharipov←▼S. Ubaydullaev

81'▲B. Shodmonov←▼I. Shaykulov

90+3'▲R. Fayzullayev←▼E. Ismoilov

Metalourg substitutes

SharipovShodmonovFayzullayevHayrullayevLobanovTemirovGafurovSattarovIbrohimov

Manager: A. Khomyakov

58'▲A. Bošnjak←▼S. Azimov

58'▲S. Berdiyev←▼L. Arveladze

58'▲S. Erkinov←▼R. Hebaj

70'▲A. Komilov←▼I. Alijanov

70'▲Islombek Mamatkazin←▼Ildar Mamatkazin

Andijan substitutes

BošnjakBerdiyevErkinovKomilovMamatkazinKomilovAtkhamovAbdiganiyevAbdunabiyev