Andijan 1–1 Metalourg: Result & Stats

Andijan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Metalourg

V. Bubanja 75'

D. Sharipov 68'

5/18/2024

Super League · Round 8Bobur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Andijan38%

×Draw28%

Metalourg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndijanExpected goals in this matchMetalourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.14

Andijan

1.23

Metalourg

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 83 away

1.19

creates per match

1.02

1.26

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Andijan

1.19

Metalourg

1.02

allows per match

Andijan

1.26

Metalourg

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par

Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Metalourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Andijan or draw

66%

Andijan or Metalourg

72%

Draw or Metalourg

62%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+

17%

Metalourg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals

71%

Andijan 2+ goals

35%

Andijan 3+ goals

13%

Metalourg 1+ goals

68%

Metalourg 2+ goals

32%

Metalourg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)

53%

Metalourg (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 1.19 + Metalourg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Metalourg attack 1.02 + Andijan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Andijan scores more

38%

level

28%

Metalourg scores more

34%

Andijan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Andijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

I. Alizhonov

30'

32'

34'

68'

71'

I. Abduganiev

71'

D. Imeri← I. Abdiganiyev

71'

S. Azimov← B. Abdumannonov

75'

V. Bubanja

77'

K. Palić← S. Abduraymov

82'

B. Đorđević← S. Ubaydullaev

84'

A. Bošnjak← F. Sohibjonov

84'

L. Zgurskiy← S. Samiev

90'

B. Djordjevic

90+3'

S. Kuziev← I. Shaykulov

Andijan

Metalourg

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Khomyakov

71'▲D. Imeri←▼I. Abdiganiyev

71'▲S. Azimov←▼B. Abdumannonov

84'▲A. Bošnjak←▼F. Sohibjonov

84'▲L. Zgurskiy←▼S. Samiev

Andijan substitutes

ImeriAzimovBošnjakZgurskiyKomilovAtkhamovArveladzeTurdimurodovBerdiyev

Manager: V. Stešević

77'▲K. Palić←▼S. Abduraymov

82'▲B. Đorđević←▼S. Ubaydullaev

90+3'▲S. Kuziev←▼I. Shaykulov

Metalourg substitutes

PalićĐorđevićKuzievOrtikovOtakhonovErgashevTursunqulovSuleymanov