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Metaloglobus vs Dacia Unirea Braila — Liga II 2018

Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
9/22/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 8Stadionul Metaloglobus (Bucureşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metaloglobus79%
×Draw13%
Dacia Unirea Braila8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metaloglobus
2.80
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.78

Metaloglobus creates 259% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 19 away

creates per match

Metaloglobus
1.39
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.68

allows per match

Metaloglobus
0.88
Dacia Unirea Braila
4.21

finishing

Metaloglobus+0.00on par
Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metaloglobus ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Metaloglobus or draw
92%
Metaloglobus or Dacia Unirea Braila
87%
Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila
21%

Winning margin

Metaloglobus wins by 2+
58%
Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Metaloglobus 1+ goals
94%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
76%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
52%
Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
54%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
18%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
91%
Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metaloglobus at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metaloglobus attack 1.39 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 2.80

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + Metaloglobus defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Metaloglobus scores more
79%
level
13%
Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
8%

Metaloglobus at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Metaloglobus 2–2 Dacia Unirea Braila

Metaloglobus and Dacia Unirea Braila drew 2-2 in Liga II on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Metaloglobus (Bucureşti).