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Dacia Unirea Braila vs Metaloglobus — Liga II 2018

Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
3/30/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 27Stadionul Municipal (Brăila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dacia Unirea Braila27%
×Draw24%
Metaloglobus49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia Unirea Braila
1.16
Metaloglobus
1.67

Metaloglobus creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 96 away

creates per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.89
Metaloglobus
1.07

allows per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
2.26
Metaloglobus
1.43

finishing

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par
Metaloglobus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia Unirea Braila ↓

Metaloglobus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dacia Unirea Braila or draw
51%
Dacia Unirea Braila or Metaloglobus
76%
Draw or Metaloglobus
73%

Winning margin

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
11%
Metaloglobus wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
69%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
32%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
11%
Metaloglobus 1+ goals
81%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
50%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
35%
Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia Unirea Braila at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Metaloglobus away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.89 + Metaloglobus defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Metaloglobus attack 1.07 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
27%
level
24%
Metaloglobus scores more
49%

Metaloglobus at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dacia Unirea Braila 2–2 Metaloglobus

Dacia Unirea Braila and Metaloglobus drew 2-2 in Liga II on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal (Brăila).