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Metaloglobus vs CS Balotesti — Liga II 2018

Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
10/27/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 14Stadionul Metaloglobus (Bucureşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metaloglobus68%
×Draw19%
CS Balotesti13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metaloglobus
2.17
CS Balotesti
0.81

Metaloglobus creates 168% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 19 away

creates per match

Metaloglobus
1.39
CS Balotesti
0.74

allows per match

Metaloglobus
0.88
CS Balotesti
2.95

finishing

Metaloglobus+0.00on par
CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metaloglobus ↓

CS Balotesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Metaloglobus or draw
87%
Metaloglobus or CS Balotesti
81%
Draw or CS Balotesti
32%

Winning margin

Metaloglobus wins by 2+
44%
CS Balotesti wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Metaloglobus 1+ goals
89%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
64%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
36%
CS Balotesti 1+ goals
56%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
19%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
84%
CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metaloglobus at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

CS Balotesti away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metaloglobus attack 1.39 + CS Balotesti defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.17

CS Balotesti attack 0.74 + Metaloglobus defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Metaloglobus scores more
68%
level
19%
CS Balotesti scores more
13%

Metaloglobus at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Metaloglobus 1–0 CS Balotesti

Metaloglobus beat CS Balotesti 1-0 in Liga II on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Metaloglobus (Bucureşti).