CS Balotesti 0–3 Metaloglobus: Result & Stats

CS Balotesti

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Metaloglobus

5/4/2019

Liga II · Round 33Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Balotesti32%

×Draw27%

Metaloglobus42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS BalotestiExpected goals in this matchMetaloglobus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.38

CS Balotesti

1.16

Metaloglobus

1.38

Metaloglobus creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 96 away

0.89

creates per match

1.07

1.68

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

CS Balotesti

0.89

Metaloglobus

1.07

allows per match

CS Balotesti

1.68

Metaloglobus

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Metaloglobus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Balotesti ↓

Metaloglobus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CS Balotesti or draw

58%

CS Balotesti or Metaloglobus

73%

Draw or Metaloglobus

68%

Winning margin

CS Balotesti wins by 2+

13%

Metaloglobus wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

CS Balotesti 1+ goals

69%

CS Balotesti 2+ goals

32%

CS Balotesti 3+ goals

11%

Metaloglobus 1+ goals

75%

Metaloglobus 2+ goals

40%

Metaloglobus 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)

43%

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Balotesti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Metaloglobus away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Balotesti attack 0.89 + Metaloglobus defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Metaloglobus attack 1.07 + CS Balotesti defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CS Balotesti scores more

32%

level

27%

Metaloglobus scores more

42%

Metaloglobus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff