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Metaloglobus vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga II 2018

Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
11/17/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Metaloglobus (Bucureşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Metaloglobus40%
×Draw28%
Chindia Targoviste32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metaloglobus
1.22
Chindia Targoviste
1.06

Metaloglobus creates 15% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 60 away

creates per match

Metaloglobus
1.39
Chindia Targoviste
1.25

allows per match

Metaloglobus
0.88
Chindia Targoviste
1.05

finishing

Metaloglobus+0.00on par
Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metaloglobus ↓

Chindia Targoviste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Metaloglobus or draw
68%
Metaloglobus or Chindia Targoviste
72%
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
60%

Winning margin

Metaloglobus wins by 2+
17%
Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Metaloglobus 1+ goals
70%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
34%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
12%
Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
65%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
29%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
56%
Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metaloglobus at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metaloglobus attack 1.39 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.25 + Metaloglobus defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Metaloglobus scores more
40%
level
28%
Chindia Targoviste scores more
32%

Metaloglobus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Metaloglobus 0–0 Chindia Targoviste

Metaloglobus and Chindia Targoviste drew 0-0 in Liga II on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Metaloglobus (Bucureşti).