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Chindia Targoviste vs Metaloglobus — Liga II 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
2/24/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 16Stadionul Eugen Popescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Chindia Targoviste52%
×Draw24%
Metaloglobus23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
1.68
Metaloglobus
1.04

Chindia Targoviste creates 62% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 96 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.93
Metaloglobus
1.07

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.02
Metaloglobus
1.43

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
Metaloglobus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

Metaloglobus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
77%
Chindia Targoviste or Metaloglobus
76%
Draw or Metaloglobus
48%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
28%
Metaloglobus wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
81%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
50%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
24%
Metaloglobus 1+ goals
65%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
28%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
69%
Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Metaloglobus away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + Metaloglobus defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.68

Metaloglobus attack 1.07 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
52%
level
24%
Metaloglobus scores more
23%

Chindia Targoviste at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chindia Targoviste vs Metaloglobus

Chindia Targoviste and Metaloglobus drew 0-0 in Liga II on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu in Târgovişte.