Metallurg Vidnoye 0–1 Metallurg Lipetsk

Metallurg Vidnoye

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Metallurg Lipetsk

5/25/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye30%

×Draw22%

Metallurg Lipetsk48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metallurg VidnoyeExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.89

Metallurg Vidnoye

1.44

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.89

Metallurg Lipetsk creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 53 away

1.53

creates per match

1.45

2.33

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye

1.53

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.45

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye

2.33

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw

52%

Metallurg Vidnoye or Metallurg Lipetsk

78%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

70%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+

13%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals

76%

Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals

42%

Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals

18%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

85%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

56%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)

38%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.45 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more

30%

level

22%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

48%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff