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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Metallurg Vidnoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
10/24/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk72%
×Draw17%
Metallurg Vidnoye10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
2.31
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.74

Metallurg Lipetsk creates 212% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.76
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.77

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.72
Metallurg Vidnoye
2.87

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
90%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Metallurg Vidnoye
83%
Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye
28%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
49%
Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
90%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
67%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
40%
Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
52%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
17%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
87%
Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.72 · 54 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.76 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.31

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
72%
level
17%
Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
10%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metallurg Lipetsk vs Metallurg Vidnoye

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Metallurg Vidnoye 7-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.