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Metallurg Vidnoye vs Khimik-Arsenal — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Khimik-Arsenal
Khimik-Arsenal
11/8/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye30%
×Draw23%
Khimik-Arsenal47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.40
Khimik-Arsenal
1.80

Khimik-Arsenal creates 29% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.53
Khimik-Arsenal
1.27

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
2.33
Khimik-Arsenal
1.27

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par
Khimik-Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

Khimik-Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw
53%
Metallurg Vidnoye or Khimik-Arsenal
77%
Draw or Khimik-Arsenal
70%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
13%
Khimik-Arsenal wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
75%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
41%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
17%
Khimik-Arsenal 1+ goals
83%
Khimik-Arsenal 2+ goals
54%
Khimik-Arsenal 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
39%
Khimik-Arsenal (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

Khimik-Arsenal away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + Khimik-Arsenal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Khimik-Arsenal attack 1.27 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
30%
level
23%
Khimik-Arsenal scores more
47%

Khimik-Arsenal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khimik-Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Metallurg Vidnoye 2–3 Khimik-Arsenal

Khimik-Arsenal beat Metallurg Vidnoye 3-2 in Second League - Group 3 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe in Vidnoye.