Khimik-Arsenal 2–1 Metallurg Vidnoye

Khimik-Arsenal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Metallurg Vidnoye

R. Izotov 75'

V. Kharitonov 61'

E. Ivashchenko 72'

6/10/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khimik-Arsenal63%

×Draw19%

Metallurg Vidnoye17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik-ArsenalExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Vidnoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.12

Khimik-Arsenal

2.30

Metallurg Vidnoye

1.12

Khimik-Arsenal creates 105% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.73

creates per match

0.77

1.47

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Khimik-Arsenal

1.73

Metallurg Vidnoye

0.77

allows per match

Khimik-Arsenal

1.47

Metallurg Vidnoye

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik-Arsenal+0.00on par

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik-Arsenal ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Khimik-Arsenal or draw

83%

Khimik-Arsenal or Metallurg Vidnoye

81%

Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye

37%

Winning margin

Khimik-Arsenal wins by 2+

41%

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Khimik-Arsenal 1+ goals

90%

Khimik-Arsenal 2+ goals

67%

Khimik-Arsenal 3+ goals

40%

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals

67%

Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals

31%

Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Khimik-Arsenal (draw refunded)

78%

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik-Arsenal at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik-Arsenal attack 1.73 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.30

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Khimik-Arsenal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Khimik-Arsenal scores more

63%

level

19%

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more

17%

Khimik-Arsenal at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Khimik-Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

72'

73'

75'

76'

E. Kudinov← V. Kharitonov

84'

B. Maksimovich← M. Obolskiy

86'

M. Rozhin← R. Kul

87'

A. Gaydukov← N. Demchenko

90+1'

D. Lutay← I. Kuleshin

Khimik-Arsenal

Metallurg

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kharitono

⚽

Izotov

Manager: S. Podpaly

76'▲E. Kudinov←▼V. Kharitonov

86'▲M. Rozhin←▼R. Kul

90+1'▲D. Lutay←▼I. Kuleshin

Khimik-Arsenal substitutes

KudinovRozhinLutay

Manager: S. Svechkar

73'▲S. Shutov←▼V. Gutsan

84'▲B. Maksimovich←▼M. Obolskiy

87'▲A. Gaydukov←▼N. Demchenko

Metallurg Vidnoye substitutes

ShutovMaksimovichGaydukov