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Metallurg Vidnoye vs FK Sokol Saratov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
9/7/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye23%
×Draw23%
FK Sokol Saratov54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.13
FK Sokol Saratov
1.85

FK Sokol Saratov creates 64% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.53
FK Sokol Saratov
1.38

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
2.33
FK Sokol Saratov
0.73

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw
46%
Metallurg Vidnoye or FK Sokol Saratov
77%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
77%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
9%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
68%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
31%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
11%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
84%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
55%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
30%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.13

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.38 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
23%
level
23%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
54%

FK Sokol Saratov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Metallurg Vidnoye 0–4 FK Sokol Saratov

FK Sokol Saratov beat Metallurg Vidnoye 4-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe in Vidnoye.