FK Sokol Saratov 5–0 Metallurg Vidnoye

FK Sokol Saratov

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Metallurg Vidnoye

A. Pogosyan 79'

Z. Maysultanov 71', 68'

A. Stolyarenko 29', 25'

5/10/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov72%

×Draw17%

Metallurg Vidnoye11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Sokol SaratovExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Vidnoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.77

FK Sokol Saratov

2.31

Metallurg Vidnoye

0.77

FK Sokol Saratov creates 200% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 30 away

1.75

creates per match

0.77

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov

1.75

Metallurg Vidnoye

0.77

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov

0.77

Metallurg Vidnoye

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw

89%

FK Sokol Saratov or Metallurg Vidnoye

83%

Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye

28%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

48%

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

90%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

67%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

40%

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals

54%

Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals

18%

Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

87%

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.75 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.31

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

72%

level

17%

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more

11%

FK Sokol Saratov at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

N. Kuznetsov← R. Kabutov

25'

A. Stolyarenko

29'

A. Stolyarenko

41'

I. Panin← A. Negoda

53'

D. Ryzhov← D. Andriyakhin

56'

B. Maksimovich← M. Obolskiy

68'

Z. Maysultanov

71'

Z. Maysultanov

74'

M. Zakharyan← D. Anisimov

74'

V. Sidorov← N. Demchenko

76'

A. Pogosyan← I. Khleborodov

79'

A. Ermakov← D. Borisov

79'

A. Pogosyan

82'

V. Pavlov← Z. Maysultanov

86'

A. Gaydukov← E. Ivashchenko

FK

Metallurg

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Zakharyak

19'▲N. Kuznetsov←▼R. Kabutov

74'▲M. Zakharyan←▼D. Anisimov

76'▲A. Pogosyan←▼I. Khleborodov

79'▲A. Ermakov←▼D. Borisov

82'▲V. Pavlov←▼Z. Maysultanov

FK Sokol Saratov substitutes

KuznetsovZakharyanPogosyanErmakovPavlov

Manager: S. Svechkar

41'▲I. Panin←▼A. Negoda

53'▲D. Ryzhov←▼D. Andriyakhin

56'▲B. Maksimovich←▼M. Obolskiy

74'▲V. Sidorov←▼N. Demchenko

86'▲A. Gaydukov←▼E. Ivashchenko

Metallurg Vidnoye substitutes

PaninRyzhovMaksimovichSidorovGaydukov

Match Recap: FK Sokol Saratov vs Metallurg Vidnoye

FK Sokol Saratov beat Metallurg Vidnoye 5-0 in Second League - Group 3 on May 10, 2021.

Goals: A. Stolyarenko (25', 29'), Z. Maysultanov (68', 71'), A. Pogosyan (79').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.

FK Sokol Saratov vs Metallurg Vidnoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Sokol Saratov vs Metallurg Vidnoye