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Metallurg Vidnoye vs Fakel II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fakel II
Fakel II
4/12/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye50%
×Draw22%
Fakel II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.95
Fakel II
1.43

Metallurg Vidnoye creates 36% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.53
Fakel II
0.53

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
2.33
Fakel II
2.37

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par
Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

Fakel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw
72%
Metallurg Vidnoye or Fakel II
78%
Draw or Fakel II
50%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
28%
Fakel II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
86%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
58%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
31%
Fakel II 1+ goals
76%
Fakel II 2+ goals
42%
Fakel II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
64%
Fakel II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.95

Fakel II attack 0.53 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
50%
level
22%
Fakel II scores more
28%

Metallurg Vidnoye at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Metallurg Vidnoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Metallurg Vidnoye 1–0 Fakel II

Metallurg Vidnoye beat Fakel II 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe in Vidnoye.