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Fakel II vs Metallurg Vidnoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Fakel II
Fakel II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
5/8/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 6Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fakel II51%
×Draw23%
Metallurg Vidnoye26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel II
1.89
Metallurg Vidnoye
1.30

Fakel II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Fakel II
0.90
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.77

allows per match

Fakel II
1.83
Metallurg Vidnoye
2.87

finishing

Fakel II+0.00on par
Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel II ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fakel II or draw
74%
Fakel II or Metallurg Vidnoye
77%
Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye
49%

Winning margin

Fakel II wins by 2+
29%
Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fakel II 1+ goals
85%
Fakel II 2+ goals
56%
Fakel II 3+ goals
29%
Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
73%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
37%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fakel II (draw refunded)
66%
Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel II attack 0.90 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 1.89

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Fakel II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fakel II scores more
51%
level
23%
Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
26%

Fakel II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fakel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Fakel II 0–2 Metallurg Vidnoye

Metallurg Vidnoye beat Fakel II 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh in Voronezh.