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Metallurg Vidnoye vs Avangard Kursk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
5/15/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye32%
×Draw23%
Avangard Kursk45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.51
Avangard Kursk
1.81

Avangard Kursk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 57 away

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.53
Avangard Kursk
1.28

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
2.33
Avangard Kursk
1.49

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw
55%
Metallurg Vidnoye or Avangard Kursk
77%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
68%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
15%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
78%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
44%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
19%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
84%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
54%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
42%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.51

Avangard Kursk attack 1.28 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
32%
level
23%
Avangard Kursk scores more
45%

Avangard Kursk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Metallurg Vidnoye 3–1 Avangard Kursk

Metallurg Vidnoye beat Avangard Kursk 3-1 in Second League - Group 3 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe in Vidnoye.