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Avangard Kursk vs Metallurg Vidnoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
3 – 0
Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
9/12/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Avangard Kursk67%
×Draw19%
Metallurg Vidnoye14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
2.19
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.90

Avangard Kursk creates 143% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.50
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.77

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.02
Metallurg Vidnoye
2.87

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
86%
Avangard Kursk or Metallurg Vidnoye
81%
Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye
33%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
43%
Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
89%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
64%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
37%
Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
59%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
23%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
82%
Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.50 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.19

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
67%
level
19%
Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
14%

Avangard Kursk at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Avangard Kursk 3–0 Metallurg Vidnoye

Avangard Kursk beat Metallurg Vidnoye 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.