Metallurg Vidnoye 3–1 Arsenal Tula II

Metallurg Vidnoye

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Arsenal Tula II

4/22/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 4Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye35%

×Draw23%

Arsenal Tula II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metallurg VidnoyeExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.76

Metallurg Vidnoye

1.60

Arsenal Tula II

1.76

Arsenal Tula II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

1.53

creates per match

1.19

2.33

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye

1.53

Arsenal Tula II

1.19

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye

2.33

Arsenal Tula II

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

Arsenal Tula II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw

58%

Metallurg Vidnoye or Arsenal Tula II

77%

Draw or Arsenal Tula II

65%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+

17%

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals

80%

Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals

47%

Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals

22%

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals

83%

Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals

52%

Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)

46%

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

Arsenal Tula II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.60

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.19 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more

35%

level

23%

Arsenal Tula II scores more

42%

Arsenal Tula II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arsenal Tula II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff