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Arsenal Tula II vs Metallurg Vidnoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
5/28/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 9Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Arsenal Tula II63%
×Draw20%
Metallurg Vidnoye17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula II
2.19
Metallurg Vidnoye
1.03

Arsenal Tula II creates 113% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.51
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.77

allows per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.29
Metallurg Vidnoye
2.87

finishing

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par
Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula II ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula II or draw
83%
Arsenal Tula II or Metallurg Vidnoye
80%
Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye
37%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
40%
Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
89%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
64%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
37%
Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
64%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
28%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
79%
Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.51 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.19

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Arsenal Tula II scores more
63%
level
20%
Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
17%

Arsenal Tula II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Arsenal Tula II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula II vs Metallurg Vidnoye

Arsenal Tula II beat Metallurg Vidnoye 4-1 in Second League - Group 3 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.