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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Rotor Volgograd — Cup 2019

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
9/14/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk28%
×Draw27%
Rotor Volgograd45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.05
Rotor Volgograd
1.40

Rotor Volgograd creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.60
Rotor Volgograd
1.00

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.80
Rotor Volgograd
1.50

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
55%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Rotor Volgograd
73%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
72%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
11%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
65%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
28%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
9%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
75%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
41%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
39%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.60 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.00 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
28%
level
27%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
45%

Rotor Volgograd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metallurg Lipetsk vs Rotor Volgograd

Rotor Volgograd beat Metallurg Lipetsk 2-1 in Cup on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.