Metallurg Lipetsk 0–1 Rotor Volgograd

Metallurg Lipetsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

8/8/2021

First League · Round 5Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk24%

×Draw29%

Rotor Volgograd47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metallurg LipetskExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.29

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.83

Rotor Volgograd

1.29

Rotor Volgograd creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 86 away

0.68

creates per match

1.06

1.53

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.68

Rotor Volgograd

1.06

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.53

Rotor Volgograd

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw

53%

Metallurg Lipetsk or Rotor Volgograd

71%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

76%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

8%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

56%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

20%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

5%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

72%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

37%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

34%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.68 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.83

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

24%

level

29%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

47%

Rotor Volgograd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff