Metallurg Lipetsk 1–2 Krasnodar 2: Result & Stats

Metallurg Lipetsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Krasnodar 2

8/21/2021

First League · Round 7Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk34%

×Draw28%

Krasnodar 238%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metallurg LipetskExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.21

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.13

Krasnodar 2

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 91 away

0.68

creates per match

0.89

1.53

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.68

Krasnodar 2

0.89

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.53

Krasnodar 2

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Krasnodar 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw

62%

Metallurg Lipetsk or Krasnodar 2

72%

Draw or Krasnodar 2

66%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

14%

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

68%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

31%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

11%

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals

70%

Krasnodar 2 2+ goals

34%

Krasnodar 2 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

47%

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.68 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.13

Krasnodar 2 attack 0.89 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

34%

level

28%

Krasnodar 2 scores more

38%

Krasnodar 2 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff