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Krasnodar 2 vs Metallurg Lipetsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
11/16/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 18Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Krasnodar 236%
×Draw25%
Metallurg Lipetsk39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.42
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.33
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.17

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.78
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.50

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
61%
Krasnodar 2 or Metallurg Lipetsk
75%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
64%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
17%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
76%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
41%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
17%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
77%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
43%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
48%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.33 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.17 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
36%
level
25%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
39%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Krasnodar 2 2–3 Metallurg Lipetsk

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Krasnodar 2 3-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.