Metallurg Lipetsk 0–4 Baltika: Result & Stats

Metallurg Lipetsk

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Baltika

10/17/2021

First League · Round 18Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk22%

×Draw27%

Baltika51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metallurg LipetskExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.44

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.84

Baltika

1.44

Baltika creates 71% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 109 away

0.68

creates per match

1.34

1.53

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.68

Baltika

1.34

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.53

Baltika

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw

49%

Metallurg Lipetsk or Baltika

73%

Draw or Baltika

78%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

7%

Baltika wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

57%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

21%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

5%

Baltika 1+ goals

76%

Baltika 2+ goals

42%

Baltika 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

30%

Baltika (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.68 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Baltika attack 1.34 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

22%

level

27%

Baltika scores more

51%

Baltika at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff