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Baltika vs Metallurg Lipetsk — First League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
5/7/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 36Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Baltika58%
×Draw24%
Metallurg Lipetsk18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.72
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.85

Baltika creates 102% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 19 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.27
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.95

allows per match

Baltika
0.75
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.16

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
82%
Baltika or Metallurg Lipetsk
76%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
42%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
32%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
82%
Baltika 2+ goals
51%
Baltika 3+ goals
25%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
57%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
21%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
76%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.72

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.95 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Baltika scores more
58%
level
24%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
18%

Baltika at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baltika vs Metallurg Lipetsk

Baltika and Metallurg Lipetsk drew 0-0 in First League on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kaliningrad in Kaliningrad.