Metallurg Lipetsk 0–3 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Metallurg Lipetsk

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

4/2/2022

First League · Round 30Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk27%

×Draw27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metallurg LipetskExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.39

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.01

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.39

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

0.68

creates per match

1.24

1.53

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.68

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.53

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw

54%

Metallurg Lipetsk or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

73%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

73%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

10%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

64%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

27%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

8%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

75%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

40%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

37%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.68 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.01

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

27%

level

27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

46%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff