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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Metallurg Lipetsk — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
9/19/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz55%
×Draw23%
Metallurg Lipetsk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.87
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.09

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 72% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.95

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.16

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
78%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Metallurg Lipetsk
77%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
45%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
32%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
85%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
56%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
29%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
66%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
30%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
72%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.87

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.95 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
55%
level
23%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
22%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Metallurg Lipetsk

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Metallurg Lipetsk 5-0 in First League on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.