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Metalleghe-BSI Jajce vs Goražde — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
FT
2 – 0
Goražde
Goražde
3/7/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Stadion Mračaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce57%
×Draw24%
Goražde19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
1.73
Goražde
0.90

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce creates 92% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 82 away

creates per match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.13
Goražde
0.91

allows per match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.88
Goražde
1.34

finishing

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par
Goražde+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce ↓

Goražde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce or draw
81%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce or Goražde
76%
Draw or Goražde
43%

Winning margin

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+
32%
Goražde wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals
82%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals
52%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals
25%
Goražde 1+ goals
59%
Goražde 2+ goals
23%
Goražde 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)
75%
Goražde (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Goražde away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 2.13 + Goražde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.73

Goražde attack 0.91 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more
57%
level
24%
Goražde scores more
19%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Metalleghe-BSI Jajce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2–0 Goražde

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce beat Goražde 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Mračaj in Jajce.