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Goražde vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Goražde
Goražde
FT
2 – 1
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
8/10/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 1Stadion Midhat Drljević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Goražde65%
×Draw21%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goražde
2.02
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.84

Goražde creates 140% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 8 away

creates per match

Goražde
1.67
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.75

allows per match

Goražde
0.94
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.38

finishing

Goražde+0.00on par
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goražde ↓

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Goražde or draw
85%
Goražde or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
79%
Draw or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
35%

Winning margin

Goražde wins by 2+
40%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Goražde 1+ goals
87%
Goražde 2+ goals
60%
Goražde 3+ goals
33%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals
57%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals
21%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Goražde (draw refunded)
81%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goražde at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goražde attack 1.67 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.02

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 0.75 + Goražde defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Goražde scores more
65%
level
21%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more
15%

Goražde at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goražde vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

Goražde beat Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Midhat Drljević in Goražde.