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Metalist 1925 U19 vs LNZ Cherkasy U19 — U19 League 2023

Metalist 1925 U19
Metalist 1925 U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LNZ Cherkasy U19
LNZ Cherkasy U19
3/7/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 20Kniazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metalist 1925 U1957%
×Draw21%
LNZ Cherkasy U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalist 1925 U19
2.10
LNZ Cherkasy U19
1.23

Metalist 1925 U19 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Metalist 1925 U19
1.50
LNZ Cherkasy U19
0.98

allows per match

Metalist 1925 U19
1.47
LNZ Cherkasy U19
2.71

finishing

Metalist 1925 U19+0.00on par
LNZ Cherkasy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 U19 ↓

LNZ Cherkasy U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 U19 or draw
78%
Metalist 1925 U19 or LNZ Cherkasy U19
79%
Draw or LNZ Cherkasy U19
43%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 U19 wins by 2+
35%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 U19 1+ goals
88%
Metalist 1925 U19 2+ goals
62%
Metalist 1925 U19 3+ goals
35%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 1+ goals
71%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 2+ goals
35%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 U19 (draw refunded)
72%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

LNZ Cherkasy U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 U19 attack 1.50 + LNZ Cherkasy U19 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.10

LNZ Cherkasy U19 attack 0.98 + Metalist 1925 U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Metalist 1925 U19 scores more
57%
level
21%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 scores more
22%

Metalist 1925 U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Metalist 1925 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Metalist 1925 U19 4–0 LNZ Cherkasy U19

Metalist 1925 U19 beat LNZ Cherkasy U19 4-0 in U19 League on March 7, 2024.

The match was played at Kniazha-Arena in Shchaslyve.