LNZ Cherkasy U19 0–5 Metalist 1925 U19

LNZ Cherkasy U19

FT

0 – 5

Metalist 1925 U19

8/25/2023

U19 League · Round 5LNZ-Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy U1936%

×Draw22%

Metalist 1925 U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LNZ Cherkasy U19Expected goals in this matchMetalist 1925 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.90

LNZ Cherkasy U19

1.76

Metalist 1925 U19

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.02

creates per match

1.37

2.42

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy U19

1.02

Metalist 1925 U19

1.37

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy U19

2.42

Metalist 1925 U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy U19+0.00on par

Metalist 1925 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy U19 ↓

Metalist 1925 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy U19 or draw

58%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 or Metalist 1925 U19

78%

Draw or Metalist 1925 U19

64%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy U19 wins by 2+

19%

Metalist 1925 U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy U19 1+ goals

83%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 2+ goals

52%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 3+ goals

26%

Metalist 1925 U19 1+ goals

85%

Metalist 1925 U19 2+ goals

56%

Metalist 1925 U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Metalist 1925 U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy U19 at home — creates 1.02, concedes 2.42 · 45 matches

Metalist 1925 U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy U19 attack 1.02 + Metalist 1925 U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.76

Metalist 1925 U19 attack 1.37 + LNZ Cherkasy U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

LNZ Cherkasy U19 scores more

36%

level

22%

Metalist 1925 U19 scores more

42%

Metalist 1925 U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Metalist 1925 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff