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Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Kramatorsk — Persha Liga 2019

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kramatorsk
Kramatorsk
7/14/2020Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 24Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv54%
×Draw26%
Kramatorsk20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.54
Kramatorsk
0.84

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 83% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 40 away

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.50
Kramatorsk
0.85

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.83
Kramatorsk
1.57

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv+0.00on par
Kramatorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

Kramatorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw
80%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or Kramatorsk
74%
Draw or Kramatorsk
46%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
28%
Kramatorsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
79%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
45%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
20%
Kramatorsk 1+ goals
57%
Kramatorsk 2+ goals
21%
Kramatorsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
72%
Kramatorsk (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Kramatorsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.50 + Kramatorsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kramatorsk attack 0.85 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
54%
level
26%
Kramatorsk scores more
20%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Kramatorsk

Kramatorsk beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1-0 in Persha Liga on July 14, 2020.

The match was played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist in Kharkiv.