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Kramatorsk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Persha Liga 2019

Kramatorsk
Kramatorsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4/24/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 23Stadion Prapor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kramatorsk34%
×Draw27%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kramatorsk
1.17
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.29

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 10% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 42 away

creates per match

Kramatorsk
1.34
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.21

allows per match

Kramatorsk
1.37
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.00

finishing

Kramatorsk+0.00on par
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kramatorsk ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kramatorsk or draw
61%
Kramatorsk or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
73%
Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
66%

Winning margin

Kramatorsk wins by 2+
14%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kramatorsk 1+ goals
69%
Kramatorsk 2+ goals
33%
Kramatorsk 3+ goals
11%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
72%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
37%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kramatorsk (draw refunded)
46%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kramatorsk at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kramatorsk attack 1.34 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.21 + Kramatorsk defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kramatorsk scores more
34%
level
27%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
39%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kramatorsk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat Kramatorsk 1-0 in Persha Liga on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Prapor in Kramatorsk.