Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv — Premier League 2019

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
2/25/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv24%
×Draw25%
Dynamo Kyiv51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.00
Dynamo Kyiv
1.60

Dynamo Kyiv creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.32
Dynamo Kyiv
2.49

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.72
Dynamo Kyiv
0.67

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.52scores less
Dynamo Kyiv+0.51scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw
49%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or Dynamo Kyiv
75%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
76%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
8%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
63%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
26%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
8%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
80%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
47%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
32%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.72 · 5 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.32 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.49 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
24%
level
25%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
51%

Dynamo Kyiv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv

Dynamo Kyiv beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 4-2 in Premier League on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Kiev.