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Dynamo Kyiv vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Premier League 2019

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
12/7/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv52%
×Draw25%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.62
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.99

Dynamo Kyiv creates 64% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.44
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.12

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.86
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.80

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.64scores less
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.26scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
77%
Dynamo Kyiv or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
75%
Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
48%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
28%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
80%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
48%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
22%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
63%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
26%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
69%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.86 · 5 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.62

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.12 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
52%
level
25%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
23%

Dynamo Kyiv at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Dynamo Kyiv beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 4-2 in Premier League on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Kiev.