Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Persha Liga 2019

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
3/15/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 6Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv40%
×Draw27%
Alians Lypova Dolyna33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.33
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.18

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.50
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.52

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.83
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.16

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv+0.00on par
Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw
67%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or Alians Lypova Dolyna
73%
Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna
60%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
18%
Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
74%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
38%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
15%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
69%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
33%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
55%
Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.50 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
40%
level
27%
Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
33%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Alians Lypova Dolyna

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat Alians Lypova Dolyna 2-1 in Persha Liga on March 15, 2021.

The match was played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist in Kharkiv.