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Alians Lypova Dolyna vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Persha Liga 2019

Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4/10/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 21Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna42%
×Draw27%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.34
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.10

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 42 away

creates per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.69
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.21

allows per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.00
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.00

finishing

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alians Lypova Dolyna ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alians Lypova Dolyna or draw
69%
Alians Lypova Dolyna or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
73%
Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
58%

Winning margin

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
19%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
74%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
39%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
15%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
67%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
30%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
58%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alians Lypova Dolyna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.69 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.21 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
42%
level
27%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
31%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Alians Lypova Dolyna 0–0 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Alians Lypova Dolyna and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv drew 0-0 in Persha Liga on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Sumy.