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Metalac GM vs Proleter Novi SAD — Super Liga 2018

Metalac GM
Metalac GM
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
8/16/2020Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 4Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Metalac GM46%
×Draw26%
Proleter Novi SAD27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalac GM
1.46
Proleter Novi SAD
1.06

Metalac GM creates 38% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 72 away

creates per match

Metalac GM
1.35
Proleter Novi SAD
0.81

allows per match

Metalac GM
1.30
Proleter Novi SAD
1.56

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par
Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw
73%
Metalac GM or Proleter Novi SAD
74%
Draw or Proleter Novi SAD
54%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+
23%
Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals
77%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
43%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
18%
Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
65%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
29%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)
63%
Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.35 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + Metalac GM defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Metalac GM scores more
46%
level
26%
Proleter Novi SAD scores more
27%

Metalac GM at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Metalac GM 1–1 Proleter Novi SAD

Metalac GM and Proleter Novi SAD drew 1-1 in Super Liga on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Metalac in Gornji Milanovac.